Modelling and forecasting the outbound tourist arrivals of Cyprus

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to make accurate forecasts about tourist arrivals in Cyprus. It is undeniable that the sector of tourism and hospitality constitutes one of the most significant for the economic growth of the island. As a consequence, the ability to predict the future tourist demand is extremely useful both for the government and the stakeholders and can help in further development of this sector. Accurate forecasts provide valuable aid for the development of marketing and tourism strategies, and the pricing policies. In this investigation we use a variety of econometric models in order to make three years predictions about tourist arrivals in Cyprus and compare the accuracy of forecasts of these models through widely used forecast accuracy measures.