Die Wählerklientel der Partei Bündnis 90/ Die Grünen 1999 und 2021. Eine vergleichende Analyse des Einflusses der Wahldeterminanten unter Anwendung des sozialpsychologischen Modells

Abstract

This study uses the assumptions of the social psychological model to investigate whether and to what extent the influence of party identification and issue orientation on the voting decisions of Bündnis 90/ Die Grünen voters changed between 1999 and 2022. This is examined on the basis of two security policy novelties of the party: firstly, the approval of the participation of the German Bundeswehr in the NATO mission in Kosovo in 1999 and, secondly, the demand for arms exports to Ukraine in 2022, although a rejection of such arms deliveries to war and crisis zones had been the subject of the 2021 Bundestag election program. While party identification had the lowest and issue orientation the highest influence on the voting decision in 1998, the other models showed the opposite results: from 1999 onwards, party identification was the most influential indicator for the voting decision in each case; issue orientation the lowest in each case. The results show that party identification has not lost its relevance as an indicator to the extent assumed. It also shows that the issues examined had only a minor influence on the voting decision.