Export-Led Growth or Manufacturing-Led Growth? Evidence from a panel approach.

Abstract

The export-led growth and the manufacturing-led growth hypotheses are examined for 43 countries over the period 1980-2013, using panel data. First and second generation panel unit root and cointegration tests are applied in order to investigate the nature of the relationship between exports and growth. Moreover, a dynamic panel vector error correction model is conducted in order to examine the short-run and long-run dynamics. The present analysis focuses not only on total exports, but also on exports of manufactures. The dependent variable used in analysis consist of GDP net of exports instead of total GDP. The empirical results provide evidence on the long-run relationship between exports and non-export output, however, the long- run effect is negative on average. Finally, there are large differences in the long-run effect of exports on non-export GDP across countries.